Fitch Ratings Ups subprime mortgage pool losses to 28%.  According to the San Diego Daily Transcript, Fitch Ratings said Thursday (March 20, 2008) that it expects subprime mortgage pool losses to increase to 28% from its prior (August 2007) estimated losses of 10 to 15% for subprime mortgage pools.  In its “Update on U.S. Subprime and Alt-A Performance and Rating Reviews” (Update Report), Fitch surveyed 185 mortgage pools from 2006 totaling $146.1 billion and 63 mortgage pools from 2007 totaling $48.7 billion for their Update report. The Update Report noted significantly higher default rates for the most recent vintage pools (2006 and 2007) over the default rates for older vintage pools (2000 to 2005).  The causes cited for these high early default rates included; the decline in prices, high risk loans, the nominal RMBS originations since mid 2007, slow loan servicer modifications and the growing inventories of foreclosure and REO properties in the market. Fitch also increased it’s related “estimated loss severity” for every dollar in loans when the foreclosed properties are sold, from 40 cents in August 2007 to 60 cents in March 2008.

San Diego County apartment rents up 3.96% in last 12 months - According to the San Diego Daily Transcript, the MarketPointe Realty Advisor’s bi-annual (March 2008) San Diego County Apartment Market Survey indicated that the current average apartment rent in San Diego County is $1,311 (+3.96%) compared to the March 2007 average apartment rent of $1,261.  The Survey also reported the overall vacancy rate in the County for March 2008 at 3.63% compared with March 2007 overall vacancy rate of 4.54%.   The MarketPointe survey included 796 apartment complexes in the County with a total of 114,681 units.  Complexes with fewer that 25 units were not included in the Survey.  The average rental rates in the County’s sub-markets ranged from $1,719 in the North County Coastal sub-market to $1,135 in the Western part of San Diego’s Uptown sub-market. The Downtown San Diego sub-market had an average rent of $1,614 per month with a noticeable market rental differential within this sub-market for newer units that came on the market since 2003 versus units that came on the market during 1998 to 2002, and prior to 1998.  The average rents for Downtown San Diego’s newer units (since 2003) reflected a premium of 5% and 50% over the averages for the vintage units of 1998-2002 and units prior to 1998, respectively.  The average vacancy rates for the County’s sub-markets ranged from a high of 5.03% along the Interstate 15 Corridor to a low of 1.62% in the Uptown West sub-market.  MarketPointe also noted that even if all of the 9,937 units (57 projects) that are in the planning stage for the County are built, they won’t be enough to satisfy the housing demand, particularly when the economy picks up.

California Leads the Nation in Foreclosure Activity in February – On March 12, 2008, RealtyTrac, a national foreclosure reporting service, stated that California led the Nation in February with 53,629 foreclosure filings.  California also had the Nation’s second-highest state foreclosure “rate” in February with recorded foreclosure filings equal to one for every 242 households in the State.  California metro areas accounted for seven of the top10 National metro foreclosure “rates” in February.  The top 10 National metro foreclosure rates were led by Stockton, California, which had a recorded foreclosure filing rate of one for every 87 households.  The other California metro areas in the top 10 were: Modesto, 3rd; Merced, 4th; Riverside-San Bernardino, 5th; Bakersfield, 7th; Vallejo-Fairfield, 8th; and Sacramento, 9th.  Overall, RealtyTrac reported that California’s foreclosure activity recordings in February 2008 were up 131% from February 2007.

Meanwhile, the San Diego Daily Transcript reported that 3,212 Notices of Default and 1,398 Trustee’s Deeds were recorded by the San Diego County Assessor’s Office during February 2008 compared with 1,368 NODs and 408 Trustee’s Deeds filed during February 2007.  These San Diego County recordings reflect an increase in the County’s Notices of Default and Trustee’s Deeds of 135% and 243% respectively for February 2008 over February 2007.

Home Price Index Falls Record 10.7% - Bloomberg News reported (March 26, 2008) that the S&P /Case-Shiller Home-Price Index comprised of repeat home sales in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 10.7% in January 2008 from January 2007.  All but one of the 20 cities in the Index showed year-over-year declines in prices in January, led by declines of 19.3% in Las Vegas and Miami.  The only metro area with a home price increase for the period was Charlotte.  “Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. forecasts home prices as measured by Case-Shiller will decline another 10% by the end of 2009.  Lehman also predicts that new-home sales will bottom in the middle of 2008 and existing-home sales and housing starts will reach a trough in 3Q2008”.  More….Bloomberg….

Locally, San Diego is among the 20 U.S. Metropolitan areas tracked by the S&P /Case-Shiller Home-Price Index.  The San Diego Metropolitan area showed a price decline of 16.75% in January 2008 from January 2007 and 21.13% from its peak in November 2005.  It should be noted that the foregoing San Diego Home-Price Index remained generally level from its statistical peak in November 2005 until it trended downward in the fall of 2006.  More….S&P/Case-Shiller….